The US Open men’s draw has taken an unexpectedly chaotic turn, with six of the top 10 seeds eliminated before the fourth round.

The early exits came despite the absence of defending champion Jannik Sinner through injury and Carlos Alcaraz’s return from a long lay-off. The circumstances had appeared to create an opportunity for other leading contenders to challenge for the title.

Instead, several prominent players have fallen, including Taylor Fritz. The world number 10 surrendered a two-set lead before losing to Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo in the third round.

“It shows you how even the circuit is, how tight every match is, how difficult it is to win matches,” Cerundolo said. “Anything can happen right now.”

Pressure and the Sinner-Alcaraz effect

The dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz has added to the pressure on the rest of the men’s field. The pair have won 10 of the past 11 Grand Slam men’s singles titles between them.

Fritz has previously said he would feel an “emptiness” at the end of his career if he did not win a Grand Slam title. Alexander Zverev, who won his first major at this year’s French Open, has also described the effect of nerves during previous Grand Slam tournaments, saying he could not sleep or eat.

Zverev has since reached the Wimbledon final and remains in contention at the US Open, although he has had to fight through his section of the draw while Alcaraz has improved with each victory.

Former Wimbledon champion Pat Cash said the “two-horse race” between Sinner and Alcaraz was not healthy for the men’s tour. He also suggested that Alcaraz’s return after four months without matches had made him an increasingly strong favourite.

Injuries, illness and fatigue

Pressure is not the only explanation for the early losses. The report also points to illness, injuries and fatigue at the end of a demanding season.

Novak Djokovic’s body was unable to withstand the demands of the tournament during his shock first-round exit, while Felix Auger-Aliassime attributed his second-round defeat partly to dizziness.

Flavio Cobolli said he lacked energy in his third-round loss, linking it to the volume of matches he had played and New York’s heat. Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils lost in the opening round to former world number three Stefanos Tsitsipas, while teenager Rafael Jodar appeared drained during his first-round defeat after playing more than 50 matches in his first full season on tour.

“We’re all human. We’re not robots. Every week is difficult,” said Belgium’s Alexander Blockx, who defeated Cobolli. “Especially at a Grand Slam where it gets even more physical.”

Women’s draw provides a contrast

The women’s draw has been comparatively stable. Eleven of the top 16 seeds reached the fourth round, led by two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka and Australian Open winner Elena Rybakina. Neither player dropped a set on the way to the last 16.

Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff, seeded third and fourth, also progressed without serious scares. French Open winner Mirra Andreeva and Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova helped ensure that the top six seeds remained unscathed.

Karolina Muchova, Elina Svitolina and 2025 US Open runner-up Amanda Anisimova were the first top-10 seeds to be eliminated, losing in the third round.

The women’s competition remains open, however. The past seven women’s Grand Slam tournaments have produced seven different winners, and four leading players are competing for the world number one ranking in New York.

Rybakina is guaranteed to overtake Sabalenka if she reaches the semi-finals, while Pegula and Gauff could move ahead by winning the title.

“Anyone can win at any time - doesn’t that make it exciting?” Cash said.

Pegula said the depth of the women’s top 10 made the tournament difficult to win, but added that there was not one or two “super dominant” players whose defeat was necessary for others to have a chance.