Harry Kane heads the race for the Ballon d’Or after a prolific season for Bayern Munich and England, but historical voting patterns could work against the England captain.
The shortlist for the award is due to be announced tomorrow. Kane has scored 73 goals for club and country during the 2025-26 season, including 61 for Bayern and 12 for England.
Bayern won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal, while England finished third at the World Cup. Kane has never previously finished higher than 10th in the Ballon d’Or voting.
The importance of major honours
The Ballon d’Or has frequently rewarded players who have won one of football’s biggest competitions during the same year. The report says only four of the previous 19 winners failed to lift the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America in their winning year.World Cup success has had a particularly strong influence. Bobby Charlton, Paolo Rossi, Lothar Matthaus, Zinedine Zidane, Ronaldo and Fabio Cannavaro all won the Ballon d’Or after lifting the World Cup.
There have also been exceptions. Lionel Messi won in 2010, 2012 and 2019 without claiming a major international or continental trophy in those years, while Cristiano Ronaldo won in 2013 after Portugal failed to progress beyond the World Cup play-offs.
The report also highlights players such as Wesley Sneijder, Franck Ribery and Mohamed Salah, whose outstanding seasons were not enough to secure the award when voters favoured other candidates.
Kane’s individual case
Kane’s 73 goals rank among the most prolific single-season totals for a player representing a club from one of Europe’s top five leagues. Only Lionel Messi, with 82 goals for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-12, has scored more for club and country in a single season, according to the report.Kane’s total is ahead of Bayern great Gerd Muller’s 72 goals in 1972-73, as well as totals recorded by Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldo, Erling Haaland and Luis Suarez in their most productive seasons.
However, Bayern’s European campaign ended in the semi-finals against eventual winners Paris St-Germain. That means Kane cannot point to Champions League success in the way some recent contenders have.
Kane or Spain?
Rodri is identified as Kane’s strongest rival. The former Ballon d’Or winner was described as Spain’s standout performer during the World Cup and collected the tournament’s Golden Ball after helping his country win a second title.Lamine Yamal is another contender after helping Barcelona reclaim La Liga and adding a World Cup winner’s medal. Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are also expected to feature prominently. Mbappe finished as the World Cup’s top scorer with 10 goals, while Messi captained Argentina to a second successive World Cup final and scored eight goals at the tournament.
The Ballon d’Or is decided by an international jury of specialist journalists, with one representative from each of the men’s top 100 countries casting a vote.
If Kane wins, he would become only the fifth Englishman to claim the award, following Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen. He would also be the first player representing a Bundesliga club to win since Matthias Sammer in 1996.
History suggests the odds are against him. But Kane’s goalscoring record has placed him in a strong position to challenge the award’s preference for players who lift football’s biggest trophies.
